Trump was always into politics for two reasons, his ego and mostly to make a ton of money. Which he clearly has done. Everyone in the Republican party wants a piece of the action and now are all mini-Trumps trying to milk the base for as much money as they can. They could care less about governing.

To that end, Trump will never stop running for office. It makes him way too much money. He doesn't care if the country disintegrates around him as long as the money keeps coming in. So, even if trump only had like 10% of diehard Republicans follow him to the ends of the earth and vote, it would cause havoc for any Republican opposing him. In this scenario, De Santis has ZERO chance of being president.

I think DeathSantis wins the nomination. But barely. Trump forms the MAGA party and runs independently. He easily gets on all 50 states ballots and hilarity ensues as DeSantis and Trump rip each other apart and Biden just sits backs and laughs all the way to a 2nd term.