I will agree with you on this. I think we'll know by June or so how effective Biden's' campaign is. He hasn't really started because he's been busy being president. Trump already gets 7x24 coverage of his antics so I am not sure how he's going to move the needle in his direction from this point on. There is only upside for Biden at this point and when those negative ads against Trump start running (and Trump himself has provided so much material for juicy negative ads) people will start to pay attention. Just like in 2020.